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Key Takeaways
- Homebuilder confidence in the future increased to its highest in nearly three years as builders cheered Donald Trump’s election and anticipated relaxed regulations.
- Builder assessment of present conditions remained subdued as high prices and mortgage rates continued discouraging buyers.
- The outlook for mortgage rates next year has worsened. Economists now expect mortgage rates to stay above 6% through 2025.
High costs and mortgage rates may be stifling new home sales today, but homebuilders increasingly predict a better housing market in the months ahead.
That’s according to an index of builder sentiment by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released Tuesday. It showed builders were more confident about the next six months, as the expectations index reached its highest level since April 2022.
NAHB executives said builders are looking forward to the upcoming second Trump era and anticipating a burst of business from the deregulation he has promised.
“While builders are expressing concerns that high interest rates, elevated construction costs, and a lack of buildable lots continue to act as headwinds, they are also anticipating future regulatory relief in the aftermath of the election,” NAHB chairman Carl Harris said in a prepared statement.
Builders Still Face High Mortgage Rates
Sales and construction of new homes have been slow in recent years as buyers have been driven from the market by high prices and mortgage rates.
The outlook for home loan interest rates has worsened in recent months because inflation has proved stubborn. This means the Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates higher for longer than it had planned a few months ago.
The central bank’s federal funds rate, which influences all kinds of borrowing costs, had been elevated for nearly two years in an effort to discourage spending and reduce inflation. Although the Fed cut the influential interest rate from a two-decade high this fall, it is still higher than it was before the pandemic. Economists expect that the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive with their cuts in the new year.
As a result, mortgage rates are likely to stay above 6% in the year ahead, NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said in a prepared statement. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate offered for a fixed 30-year mortgage last week was 6.6%, well above the 2%-3% range available during the pandemic era or the 4%-5% typical before 2020.
