Fed Officials Strike An Optimistic Tone After Slashing Rate Cut Forecasts

After projecting fewer cuts to the fed funds rate in the new year, Federal Reserve officials struck an optimistic tone in the wake of new inflation data Friday.

Central bankers released their projections for the policy path ahead this week and, on average, expect they will cut rates much less aggressively in 2025 than previously expected. The projections were also lower than economists and investors anticipated, resulting in a sell-off after the meeting.

However, individual members of the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee struck a seemingly more optimistic tone Friday.

“Over the next 12 to 18 months, rates can still go down a fair amount, and whether that happens three months earlier or three months later, I don’t think is the most material thing,” said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in a televised interview with CNBC. “The thing that’s material is we’ve gotten inflation down.”

Stocks moved upward after his comments, leading the S&P 500 to a gain of 1.8% at midday.

One reason for Goolsbee’s optimism was the November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which earlier in the morning showed an annual inflation rate of 2.4%, lower than economists expected. The inflation report was especially relevant because persistent inflation was one reason the Fed projected fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 than it had in a prior forecast.

Data Dependence Isn’t Over

Goolsbee wasn’t the only central banker pleased with the inflation report, as New York Fed President John Williams called it “encouraging news.” If the Fed sees more reports like that, officials could continue to bring down interest rates, though it may take time, he said. 

“I think the baseline trajectory is moving down toward neutral rates. But we need to be data-dependent. And we have time to really assess the data, assess what’s happening, and come to the best judgments based on the data, based on the outlook and the risk to achieving our goals,” Williams said.

The Labor Market is Also on Central Bankers’ Minds

Williams and Goolsbee were among several Federal Reserve officials who made remarks on public statements on Friday, the first day out of the blackout period following this week’s meeting. 

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack cast the one dissenting vote against lowering the central bank’s influential federal funds rate this week. She argued that a strong labor market would likely keep inflation elevated into 2025. 

“I prefer to hold policy steady until we see further evidence that inflation is resuming its path to our 2% objective,” Hammack wrote in a statement explaining her dissent.

In contrast, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Bloomberg News in comments before the release of the inflation report that she would prioritize labor market strength over the inflation rate.

“I don’t want to see an unnecessary rise in the unemployment rate just to get a quarter ahead on the 2% goal,” Daly said.